OTL evaluators please use this forum as a place to discuss anything re OTL or horse racing. We will all benefit from the interaction. It will also help me to speed up both my understanding of how you see and use the site and how quickly I can tweak it. And of course, it is a place for all of us to interact with each other.
So please start adding your general comments. If you want to start discussion on a new topic just email me and I will add it.
This is a private forum. Members can only access it after logging in.
ReplyDeleteYour options for using this forum:
(under Comment as [Select profile and choose Name)
(a) use your name
(b) use a screen name but you will have to email me privately to identify who you are
Hello Darien and OTL evalutors. Hope every one had a great Thanksgiving. My (User Name is Tracker).
ReplyDeleteI have carried the OTL selection sheets several times with me to my OTB, and they were a great sourse of information. One of the first things I noticed was that one of first two selections are very strong about being in the exacta. Any horse that is in red writeing was a strong contender and should be considered.
AS a suggestion there needs to be a page that explains what all the Colum headers mean, such as (TR-PR-MxR-E-Ts-(S-D)-Rate-splits-1st2 )
Morning Line Odds noted on page some where.
A user needs to know what every thing on the selection sheet means
More to come later-----Tracker (11-28-11)
Thanks Tracker
ReplyDeleteI will publish sheet column explanations to you and just those who have completed the 2 tutorials and survey 1.
Will add morning line odds to help folks with their betting strategy
Thanks Darien, I am sure that will help alot.
ReplyDeleteOn the main selection sheets you show (4Fur. speed and LS Lone Speed). Is there any thing that will give you the closing ability or late speed of a horse ????
Some times there is a Black Box around a horse or horses what does that mean ????
TNX Again we will be back.------Tracker
Hi Tracker
ReplyDeleteI have emailed you the columns descriptions. Hope this helps.
I don't plan to publish this on the website so if anyone wants it they have to email me directly.
Closing horses have a style of R (R1 or R2 sometimes) more on this later.
Thanks
Darien
Hello every one. TNX Darien for the explanation sheet, it certainly will be a great help.
ReplyDeleteThe sheet looks great, dont know that I would consider changing a thing on it.----Tracker
Hello Darien and every one, did not get to the OTB on Thursday but maybe today. I did however study over some of the sheets I had used before.
ReplyDeleteLets talk about early speed. I have noticed that on most of the races at any track on any day there are never more than about two (L-horses) early speed types noted on the reports. Some times one, some times two, and some times none. This is a very important part of handicapping, especially at Aqueduct this time of the year on the inner track. If this is a constant ( one or two L horses) per race it may be a good idea to loosen up the program a little on the early speed to let a few more thru. Reason being is if one of the early speed horses get scratched or gets a bad break it kind of leaves you hanging. In every race there will always be early speed of some kind, they may be more grouped together in some races but there should always be something.
Just a suggestion or thought.-----Tracker
Hello OTL testers, I believe that a Betting Strategy useing the system would be a great addition. I know for a fact that one of the first two selections can be very active in hitting the exacta, first or second at certain tracks.
ReplyDeleteAbout a week or so ago I noticed that you can change the main selection sheet by clicking on one of the little col. headers. Of the few times I have done this I have noticed that clicking on the EX-exercise header in some sort of Maiden Race that it will group the first and second runners closer together, Like I say I have only took a look at this once or twice.
Also by doing the same (clicking on the Pace header) this seems to help alot, but the jury is still out on that.
Darien may can shed a little lite on when best to use and make such changes.
You can also make some changes in some of the boxes, not sure exactly what this may lead to. I would think that doing so may give different weights to different angels and doing so could change the selection out come.
More to come-----------Tracker
Hello OTL testers, today at Aqueduct if you had boxed the top four selections on the main selection sheet and working it back and forth with the (Trend) selections you would have hit 7 out of 9 exactas totaling $655.05. I have just started looking at the (Trend) Col. and it seems to be a very powerful handicapping tool. I didnt play all of those races because I was working with my print out with the two different settings. They were very close to each other.
ReplyDeleteHello every one, maybe we will be picking up some more testers before long. But we will keep moving along any way. Darien, the Pace figures are a very strong handicapping part of the program. On the main sheets they are the fifth Col. from the right of the page. The last Col. is called the (Status) Col., not sure what that means, there seems to never be any information posted there. Since the pace figures are so important they need to be printed larger. They need to easier to read. Its tough for us old fellows with Bi-focals to make out some of the numbers. Open up the pace Col. and since there is little under the Status Col. maybe close that up alittle. Just a thought. Remember (Pace Makes The Race). These rateings need to jump out at you.
ReplyDeleteHello every one, Christmas is getting very close now and OTL gave some eaely presents at Hollwood Park on Saturday and Sunday.
ReplyDeleteSaturday 12-17-11
Useing the new Trend up or down red square box, which makes it very easy to see really showed off this week end.
It won four races out of ten paying as follows.
1. #5----$14.80
3. #5----$5.00
5. #3----$173.40 (KA-BOOM) and keyed over the top two selections yielded a exacta for $531.70.
9. #9----$12.20 Keyed over the top two yielded an exacta for $47.00.
On Sunday 12-18-11
Top two selections---- 6 winners
Exactas useing top 4----7 out of 10
Trifectas in top 4----5 out of 10
Wins in top 2 stright up---- 6
These reports and the changes that have been made can be great help to any one that will use them.
I also noticed that the morning line has been added, that was a great help
Darien its getting better all the time.
Oh! by the way, the reports yielded a very nice week end at Aqueduct also.
More to come later
Hello every one, hope every one had a great Christmas Holiday week end. Monday was the opening day of the Santa Anita meet this winter.
ReplyDeleteAnd did OTL go to work right away. The top four selections have always been a nice play to box for an exacta, and Trifecta betting and did it have a nice day on Monday 12-26-11.
Some of the results as follows:
Race 4. (892) Exacta----$1,193.10 (KABOOM) The first and fourth selection came together. If you looked a little further down the fourth race card, all hi-lighted in red was the #2, which made up the Trifecta----($12,074.40).
The red high lighting makes these contenders easy to spot.
Race 6. Top selection was scratched,so the next four created the top four.
Results--(5-12-4)
Win----$4.80
Exacta----$23.30
Tri----$215.60
The number 4 which made up the trifecta was a high lited selection for trending up. A strong angle.
Race #7. Results (382)
Win ----$27.20
Exacta----$156.80
Trifecta----$846.60
The #3 was the top selection and the #8 was the second selection in exact order. The #2 was a red high lighted selection just a few selections down. The red high lighting helps to spot these contenders.
Race #8. Results----(468)
Win----$4.20
Exacta----$11.10
Trifecta----$47.70
A very nice day to start Santa Anita. More to come later.
In Repsonse to Tracker on the Pace number.
ReplyDeleteHe is right the so called pace# is most important. Actually it is more than it appears to be. It uses a similar concept as the Beyer#. it is really big and bright on the SHEETS page (yellow with black background). the column header is 'PR' -predicted rating.
On the Easy Selections it is under 'Pace#'
Another point: this rating# or pace# is class and track independent. In other words a 90 run by at 40,000 claimer is equivalent to a 90 run in a stakes race. However there are other factors in assessing a race like the horse style versus who the horse is running against. For instance if a horse is a lead only type and he runs a 90 in a claiming race where the first 2 furs is 23 and wins and that seems to be his fastest speed. Now he goes gainst a stakes field and his number of 90 puts him near or on top but there is another horse capabale of running 22 for the first 2 he may not get to the fornt to win.
I'd love to see the column explanations as well please.
ReplyDeleteHi SOl,
ReplyDeleteFor 'security reasons' I won't be posting the col explanations on the website until I go live to proudtion. I will gladly send directly to to you. Please email me directly darien@ontracklive.com
Hello Sol, and welcome to the Data Testing. I believe you will enjoy and find this very interesting. I am an old horse racing lover and enjoy being around other people who love it also. I believe Darien is going to have a great web site when it is complete and one that raceing lovers can really enjoy.
ReplyDeleteI am still working on getting use to the program my self in alot of ways. Jump in and see what you think.------Tracker
Hello every one, hope every one had a great Holiday Season this year.
ReplyDeleteDarien has added a great new addition to the web site this week end, Jockey Riding Style. This will be a very nice tool to use in handicapping the races. This is something that experienced handicappers know about but is not very easy to keep up with. So now the work is being done for you at a glance.
Now the running style of the horses was really doing well at Aqueduct this weekend, for example :
Race #4. Results-----(11-3-7)
The top ranked running style horse was the #11. It was also ranked in the top four selections and had the second best exercise rateing. The second horse was the #3 which had the second best improving rating. The #7 was the second selection on the report in the top 4.
Win----41.20
Exacta----$1,247.00
Trifecta----$7,563.00
KABOOM
This was a 6 FUR. race and if you look at the rideing style of the jocky (Husbands S.P.) he has a very big S1 percentage. This was in the new edition added to the web site this week end.
This was just a good example of how the reports can work for you.
More to come later.
Hello Data Testers, the user name here is Tracker. I am just an old horse player-handicapper that loves horse raceing and being around other people that do also. I have been working with Darien for quite some time now on the data testing. I believe he has a great program - product that could be a very big help in handicapping the races. Not only do you have the ability to print off the reports on paper but also you could take your lap top or other on line device to the track and handicapp that way.
ReplyDeleteTo me this program has something special in it to select value condenders and present them in an easy to read format and will let you bring up about any angle or mode in handicapping for another look other than the original selections. And thats great !
Now for a little data talk. An angle that can be very rewarding in handicapping that I have used for a long time but it is an angle that can be easyly over looked in consentrating on maybe other angles is the same (Owner- Trainer- Breeder) or any combination there of. The reports have the jockey and trainer on them but no owner or breeder. Whats your thoughts on adding that to them some way ????
I have used I guess all or most of the handicapping services that seemed that would be useful so I know whats out there. And this is the best, as I mentioned it has a special ability to select contenders at value odds if at all possible, and it is more consistant.
More to come later-----Tracker
Tracker/Darius, I have been reboarding 02/18 at the Big A. I was out for a bit yesterday and did not think I had time to go to OTB. I ended up there for a couple of hours with my trusty Racing Form. This AM I decieded to download the data from ON-TRACK and take a look back. The visual indicators in the system would have helped a lot now as I look back. Especially race 10 where I think we had a $10 horse on top which I managed to overlook. More as I continue to look. Dave
ReplyDeleteHello every one, just wanted to post alittle on the Derby. I have been some what down and out about the Derby this year because several months my OTB announced that they wood not be carring any Kentucky or Florida tracks. So far that has been true. So every one just took it that the Derby was out for us. (What a Bomber). That really did as you would say SUCKS . Well this past Sunday a security guard told me that the Derby was on her work schedule. That was great news. By now I would been up to my nose in Derby handicapping so I will have a late start. But we will get on with it.
ReplyDeleteI was some what impressed with the run Hanson showed in his last race. He made it look so easy to win.
Union Rages from what I understand has beat him before.
I always watch to see how the Arkansaw Derby goes first before going too far.
Every one have a great day. More to come--------Tracker
Well OTL was awesome yesterday on Gulfstream's big day.
ReplyDeleteCheck the results data. Your comments are welcome!
Sheets are up today including Fairground's Louisiana Derby.
OTL had a great day at GP yesterday at least for the races I played. I will red board the rest of the card. I liked El Padrino in the FLA Derby and he sure had a chance to fire. I did not like Rags because I feel he is distance challenged. I agree with Darius his ride yesterday was marginal but I think a shorter distances they were able to move him around at will. I am begining to think Trackers evaluation on Hanson's race is spot on.
ReplyDeleteHello Data Testers, talking about Gulfstream Park, that was great but today at the Fairgrounds OTL really did its thing.
ReplyDelete5 out of 14 top winners and these were not all chaulk.
7th race----Results (6-8-3)
Top pick won $33.60
Exacta----$526.20
Tri.----$1,978.00
The top pick 4 in printed order was (6-8-3-5)
You cant get any better than that. In exact order.
Now for the cream of the crop.
Race 10 The Louisiana Derby-----$1.000.000 Race----1 1/8 Miles
Results----12-1a-11-6
Now the 12 was 99/1 at post time. The top pick was the 11 on the reports , with Mike Smith riding him, a big plus in this kind of race. The 1a was the post time favorite, the fourth pick on the reports. NOw looking down the report you see 3 red boxes, the 3-12-4 all showing that the horse was improving .But only one of them had a 94 under the exerise (Ex). This really should be getting your attention by now. Trust the reports.This horse was an (L) running style which alot of these runners hold on.Which this one did.So takeing the top pick and the second pick and this high rated exercise with the red box by it , #12 would have landed you in handicappers heaven.
Results-----12-1a-11-6
Win----$220.80
Exacta----$491.80
Tri.----$7,812.00
Superfecta----$16,326.20 KABOOM----KABOOM
My OTB does not carry the Florida tracks this year, maybe next year. But they do carry the Louisiana tracks (Fairgrounds)
Hope some of you may have picked up on some of this.------Tracker
Ontracklive update:-
ReplyDeleteYou will have noticed very very slow response on the web site. This will be fixed shortly. I am moving all my domains to a new provider where I can get the speed of the hroses racing to the finish line. Speed on a web site like this is essential and it has been horrible the past three weeks and the providers have not responded.
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