OTL - Betting Strategy

It is important to understand some of the fundamentals of OTL's handicapping methodology.

Key points related to the current release of OTL VHT
- First time starters (FTS) are not handicapped
- OTL handicaps primarily on past performances.
- We do not yet have a formula to convert dirt form to turf form and vice versa. However the pedigree impact on the horse's ability to perform on Turf is presented in the system.

What the results show:
As you can imagine the basic pace numbers of track meetings which have been in progress for a while will be more reliable.  That is because many of the horses may have run against each other several times making the pace numbers more effective.  We also bet better results from tracks which are isolated e.g: WOODBINE, FINGERLAKES, PARX etc.

So much for the background:....

To maximize your chances:
Play exotics with our top 4
You may skip races with too many FTSs or horses running on the current surface for the first time.
Our score when you do that is very high

Be cautious of  horses that have not run for 3 cycles (9 weeks) or more.  You may increase their betting value if they are recording a sequence of good works since the layoff.  But nothing compares to a live race!! right?

More to come....add your thoughts here

6 comments:

  1. Hello OTLers, the first two selections and the pace rateing are a very powerful tool to use when constructing a bet, along with the running style which should be considered also. More to come on this later.----Tracker

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  2. To OTL folks. I have been adjusting Turf pace/achievment data for class of race with some success. In other words a speed achieved in a grade/group 1 is better than the same speed in a NW2. Has anyone tried those type of adjustments to the OTL data?

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  3. That is an interesting point. We should follow up on it. I would like to hear others may view it. Thanks for postin SaratogaDave

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  4. Check **outstanding results on Saturday (4/28) sheets

    Churchill downs:
    ES 10 winners
    5 top picks
    1 2nd pick
    2 3rd picks
    2 4th picks

    5 EXACTAS
    4 TRIFECTAS
    2 SUPERFECTAS

    Belmont had many maiden races with 1st time starters so results not as impressive

    Go to ES to view in the web site

    Appreciate comments right here in the forum. Thanks

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    Replies
    1. Good results for the first day of the meet!

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  5. Hey Guys,
    Sheets up for the top summer vacation tracks:
    Monmouth, Saratoga & DelMar

    Anyone going to watch live racing at any of these?

    We are in the process of migrating the website to a faster provider but in the meantime we have gotten the current provider to speed things up.

    remember to send me you feedback

    Good Luck

    Darien

    ReplyDelete