Hello every one, just wanted to post alittle on the Derby. I have been some what down and out about the Derby this year because several months my OTB announced that they wood not be carring any Kentucky or Florida tracks. So far that has been true. So every one just took it that the Derby was out for us. (What a Bomber). That really did as you would say SUCKS . Well this past Sunday a security guard told me that the Derby was on her work schedule. That was great news. By now I would been up to my nose in Derby handicapping so I will have a late start. But we will get on with it.
I was some what impressed with the run Hansen showed in his last race. He made it look so easy to win. Union Rages from what I understand has beat him before. I always watch to see how the Arkansaw Derby goes first before going too far.
Every one have a great day. More to come--------Tracker
Hello from upstate NY. Just a couple of thoughts on the derby. I think Union Rags will find the last quarter a bit too long. Right now I am leaming toward El Padrino in the FL Derby and Alpha in Cal. After watching the Santa Anita Derby I think I will know who my pick is. Dave
Hey Folks Remember you can view all the past performances, charts and video replays of the prep races for the Derby through OTL. You can select Derb Trail 2012 from the left side of the Home page or go directly to http://www.ontracklive.com/derby2012.htm. I find it really useful to look at how the live race is run.
The quesrtion was answered yesterday. OTL had the top pick - TAKE CHARGE INDY (led all) OTL had the Exacta, Trifecta & Superfecta. OTL Easy selection of the top 4 was perfect.
This is shaping up to be a erally good derby as Union Rags who was the favorite was not impressive yesterday. Perhaps a poor ride... he was reserved early came into the straight on the rails switched outside but was not powerful in the finish.
Take Charge Indy was given a superb ride... reserved in front had lots at the top of the straight to accelerate away from Reveron.
My initial reaction is that Union Rags has alread peaked and there may be others getting better now.
Hello Data Testers, talking about Gulfstream Park, that was great but today at the Fairgrounds OTL really did its thing. 5 out of 14 top winners and these were not all chaulk. 7th race----Results (6-8-3) Top pick won $33.60 Exacta----$526.20 Tri.----$1,978.00 The top pick 4 in printed order was (6-8-3-5) You cant get any better than that. In exact order.
Now for the cream of the crop. Race 10 The Louisiana Derby-----$1.000.000 Race----1 1/8 Miles
Results----12-1a-11-6 Now the 12 was 99/1 at post time. The top pick was the 11 on the reports , with Mike Smith riding him, a big plus in this kind of race. The 1a was the post time favorite, the fourth pick on the reports. NOw looking down the report you see 3 red boxes, the 3-12-4 all showing that the horse was improving .But only one of them had a 94 under the exerise (Ex). This really should be getting your attention by now. Trust the reports.This horse was an (L) running style which alot of these runners hold on.Which this one did.So takeing the top pick and the second pick and this high rated exercise with the red box by it , #12 would have landed you in handicappers heaven.
Results-----12-1a-11-6 Win----$220.80 Exacta----$491.80 Tri.----$7,812.00 Superfecta----$16,326.20 KABOOM----KABOOM My OTB does not carry the Florida tracks this year, maybe next year. But they do carry the Louisiana tracks (Fairgrounds) Hope some of you may have picked up on some of this.------Tracker
Louisiana Derby (LD) - Tracker said it all! Check you email for a link to a new Tutorial I published. This tutorial uses the sheet for the LD to explain the VHT used to point to the winner and exotics in the race. You can also view the rerun of the LD from our Derby Trail page. This week-end get ready for a blockbuster set of Derby Preps The Santa Anita Derby The Wood Memorial The Illinois Derby
4-05-12 Thursday Hello every one, I mentioned in another post something about Hanson, and I am keeping him in my sights at this time. That horse won that race like he was takeing a walk in the park. Now there are still more horses to come this week end. I am also takeing a look at a horse named (Creative Cause). He could turn out to be a player. He lost to Hanson and Union Rags back in November at a 1:44 mile and sixteenth.
On March the 10th at Santa Anita he came back and ran a 1:41.84 at a mile and sixteenth an won (San Felipe G2). Thats a full 2 seconds faster than the race he lost in November and any 1 1/16 mile race that Hanson and Union Rags has run. Of course the Derby is a little longer with a grinding stretch than those races but this horse still had plenty of gas left in his tank. His form in the stretch wss some what rough but he kept it together and won. I will be considering this horse and hopeing he has some very good value at post time. I have a big question mark by Union Rags after this week end. There are other races comeing this week end and the Arkansaw Derby I believe the next week end. I always wait and watch the trip the winning horse has in that race. More to come on the Derby------Just doing a little thinking out loud-----I hope we all do well on Derby day. --------Tracker
Hello Data Testers, The Santa Anita Derby will be Saturday at 5:30 ET. The 6th Race a $750,000 G1 ----9 Fur. race. Creative Cause will be running in that race from the above post. Joel Rosario will be driving and the horse is trained by Mike Harrington. Early signs seem to be he may be the favorite. Not much value there. But we will get another chance to him run again. He will be running out of the #1 post. We will get a chance to see if maybe he will join Union Rags with a question mark by his name. Good Luck this week end .---------Tracker
With the major preps completed this is shaping up to be a really great Derby with many of the top rated horses failing: Union Rags, Creative Cause, Hansen and others like Bodemeister and Dullahan trending upwards,
Remember to check out our Derby Trail Page. It is accessible from the main page via clicking on the graphic in the left side. I have updated the results of the last several Derby preps where you can review the replays.
I have also added a list of the top 25 eligible by Graded Stakes Earnings. All of the info on this page is taken from the official Kentucky Derby website. Check it ou!!!
Thanks for the Derby printable sheets. I appreciate that the sheets were out already for the Derby, but I would love to get a chancce to play around with the interactive part of the site before the Derby. I would also love to see something similar for the Oaks, but obviously you are quite busy so I understand if it cannot be done.
I did notice that the top three rated horses on the Derby sheets all came out of the Bluegrass Stakes which makes me wonder about the algorhythm (by the way hated to see that horse get hurt) used in generating those numbers. I can only come to one of of two conclusions. First, the Bluegrass Stakes was just a fantastic prep or that because of pace and surface, it is a potentially over rated race falsely putting those three entrants on top. I think it is much more likely that it is the latter rather than the former. While it is entirely possible this could be a similar situation as Empire Maker and Funny Cide running 1-2 in the Wood and then turning around and going 2-1 in the Derby, but in my eyes, the prep does not seem that strong, especially considering it was on poly.
I was looking at the same thing concerning the Bluegrass and synthetics. I don't think the 2012 Bluegrass is like the 2003 Wood. I think the major Derby preps were of pretty high quality. Has anyone studied how winners at Keenland have done at Churchill? I always give an extra look at horses that have won at Churchill. Also those that have run poorly there. Hansen and Gemologist have run well and won at Churchill. This year's 3YO's seem to be a very good crop. The 1st 5 runners in the BC Juvenile and 4 others are in the Derby. Hansen beat 8 subsequent graded stakes winners in the BC Juvenile.
Hanson may have beat 8 horses that later won Graded Stakes but he does not appear to have progressed that much as a 3 year old. This may be due to distance issues with his breeding. I will toss Hanson which means he will probably be first over the speed and whistle. Just a few thoughts. Dave
Hello Data Testers, and a big Happy Kentucky Derby to every one. I am just an old horse player that loves the sport and being around other people that do also. This year is a little different than most years. I cant play the Derby because my OTB has some issues with Churchill Downs. I know that stinks but I havent lost heart. I have still been following the horses and will share some thoughts on this years race. Which I believe has some of the best talent in recent years. I usually take a postion against the favorites or lets say ones takeing the most action at this toime.
Bodemister----This one is hard to go against his jocky. (Mike Smith) This is his kind of race. Hanson Union Rags Gemologist Which these seem be be the ones that fit.
Looking for some that may be ready to run the (best) race of there life. A few horses that I like that are not in any order are:
#9 Trinniberg--This is a very fast little horse, with plenty of heart and a sure fighter. Not sure if he can handle the distance, maybe not but I will not leave him out of my exotics. #8 Creative Cause-- I made another post about this horse, I believe hes a contender and could handle the distance.Big closer. #13 Went The Day Well----Same connections as Animal Kingdom----Has done his best running going into the second call and foward from there----Has paired triple digit late pace figures several times. I like his odds. #16 El Padrino----He may not win but could be in the exotics. This horse needs to get to the inside bad. Has a hard rideing jocky doing the driving. #5 Dullahan----I am not so sure this horse has toped out yet,just may be this race.Hes not one of the fastest but I like his running style. His rider may just surprise every one. He is good about that. Thats my top five. Now, there is another horse that is going off at nice odds that I feel could be contender (Take Charge Indy) At this point useing him may still be up in the air. Would decide later on him. Well I hope every one makes some big money and really enjoys the race. The horses will give you all they have and the jockys will do there best. As I said earlier I cant play the race this year because of issues beyond my control but I handicapped it as if I were. Its hard to break old habits. I cant really tell you who will win the Derby and dont believe any one else can either. But I always try to play bets that help put the odds a little more in my favor. I try to keep it simple, so I would more than likely do an exacta box with the mentioned horses and maybe a few win bets on horses of value. I always look for value. And try to stay away from the hype.
Heres a little story . For many years I would always start handicapping the Derby about two or three months before. My wife does not handicapp or know any thing about horse raceing. But she does usually watch Breakfast At Churchill Downs on the TV on Derby day. Three years in a row I was leaving to go to the track and I would always ask her if she saw one she liked and she would tell me that one and I would write down the horse she pointed at. Well for three years in a row she picked the horse that ran second to the winner, Smarty Jones was one of them that won, man did I love that horse.. It kind of made me wonder why am I doing all this work, standing there with a raceing form all kind of paper work in my hands. Oh well thats horse raceing. By the way her picking helped me hit every exacta more than once, some nice ones too. When those horses come around the last turn into the stretch and fan out its any ones race.
Well as I said good luck to every one, have a great day. I may add to this later----Tracker
Had to believe Bodemiester and Gemologist are 8-1 in the current win pool of almost $400k. Biggest drop from M/L is Take Charge Indy from 15 to 8 Hard to ignore Gemologist at 8-1
I have to believe the early money is going towards long-shots given the race's history.
No deep closer won a dirt race at CD today.There was no horse further back than 2.5 lengths after the first half mile except for the 9th race. Does this mean speed will hold for the Derby? Of course there were no 10 furlong races either.
Remember the morning line is made up of artificial odds by Battaglia. Borel in the last 5 years has established himself as the King of the Derby so once people realize he is up on Take Charge Indy the odds will drop, it makes sense.
Not sure why Bodemeister is favored. If his odds are rising, again it makes sense as he beat nobody in the Arkansas Derby and was whipped by Creative Cause in Ca. If anything it enhances the stocks for Creative Clause.
Both the grass and dirt were lightening fast on Friday at CD. Several stakes records were broken.
As promised our value-added offical picks are posted on the Derby Trail Page http://www.ontracklive.com/derby2012.htm. CHeck it out
**This is different from the picks in the sheets. WHy? because the Derby handicapping methdolody is being applied on top of the regular handicapping technique.
However the interactive prt of the You Drive / sheets part of the site still gives a ton of info it is just the final ranking that has changed.
The winner I'll have Another was superbly turned out by Doug O'Neill. He was the best in the field and perfectly ridden by young jockey Guiterrez, bucking tradition that inexperienced jockeys cannot win the Derby. Doug O'Neill is a good California trainer.
Bodemeister ran a monster race. Credits to jockey Mike Smith who made a rare and decisive gamble to take him to the lead and outrun Trinniberg. He was still running well up to the finish. Credit to Baffert who had Bodemeister peaking on Derby Day
Our Derby Pick Dullahan ran a fast closing 3rd coming from far far back. Went the Day Well ran nicely in the last furlong for 4th. Both look promising for the other legs of the Triple Crown. If Bodemeister comes out OK he will be tough to beat in the Preakness. The Belmont is up for grabs though.
Other than not picking the Derby winner, OTL did well in the undercard. 7 Winners (Easy Selections) - 5 Exactas, 1 Trifecta
O'Neill has a running battle with the CHRB over milkshaking. He had at least one horse disqualified last year. He's a trainer that if I bet on his horse, I lose, If I bet against him, he beats me. I too was impressed with Guiterrez and his patient ride. 1st winner ever from post 19
Hello every one, I posted my thoughts before I saw the printable sheets of the Derby. As I mentioned Mike Smith and Bodemeister would be hard to go against, and he certainly ran a nice race. But just could not quite hang on for the win, as every one knows.
I thought the printable sheets really did a great job as far as presenting a chance to win money on one of the hardest horse races out there if not the hardest. Results: Win--$32.60---- #19--Ill Have Another Exacta--$306.60--#6--Bodemeister Trifecta----$3,065.60--#5 Dullahan All three of these horses were in the top 6 selections of the report. Now to narrow that down even more, top choice #5 Dullahan, cant leave him out. #14 Hanson ,second choice , not a factor in the race, but he was noted as a (LS) horse. (Has Won Leading All The Way), lone speed. Black box with a yellow (Y ) in it.
Now the other two horses #6 Bodemeister and #19 Ill Have Another were the only other two (LS) horses in the top 6 on the report. I all ways pay close attention to what the report says in the top part of it. They were all there close together and one of the most important things I look at is the (LS) horses if any. Especially on the upper part of the card. So the winner, the exacta and the trifecta were really hitable. Now if we go a little deeper on the card, one of the other very important indicaters on the reports is the little red box under the (T) trending up or down. There are only four horses in the entire race with this indicater. When there are more than one I start looking for something to consider one over the other, and guess what #13 ( Went The Day Well) a horse I like anyway was the only one of these with an equipment change. (Blinkers On ) one of my favorite angles. Results----19-6-5-13 Superfecta----$96,092.80 KABOOM I usually dont play just a win bet on these kind of races. Ill usually throw some horses in a box or stack bet and go for the exacta, maybe the trifecta and maybe some sort of Superfecta. I personally feel these bets could have been hit useing the reports in this race.
Just a note: as expected Dullahan was closeing like a Fright Train at the finish line he may be one to really look at in the Preakness. Hope every one did well , as I mentioned I could not play the race because my OTB has some issues with Churchill Downs. More to come on the up comeing races.------Tracker
I think Creative Cause is the best value in the Preakness I will be playing him to win, exactas (box) with Bodemiester and Daddy Nose Best and trifectas with /all/Daddy Nose Best and Zetteholm. I think I'll Have Another will not have another race like the derby
Good morning to every one on Preakness day. I will be going with the Top four on the reports, plus two others for long shots in my play. Race 12 9-7-6-8 I liked these four from the start. Will look at adding 5 (Went The Day Well) and 4 (Zetterholm) to the mix in a stacked Trifecta. Will wait to post time on configeration. Good luck every one and have a great day.------Tracker
My personal thoughts not official OTL predictions.
Unless Bodemeister is a super horse which he may prove to be, I see him packing it in the straight. That derby sprint move has to be exhausting for a young horse. Our local hero Joe Bravo on Teeth of the Dog - is a bit impetuous and may just duel with Bode for the lead.
I'll have Another staying fit should win.
Creative Cause can win with a perfect one move ride from 3 furs out, because he is a bit one paced. Rosario is a strong tough jock.
Expect Went the day well to improve a lot on the Derby run. He is the one that can improve a ton on the last race and sweep by to win handily.
One more thing. The results from yesterday at Pimlico had 6 best last race horses and 6 won leading in front WINNERS. This info may be useful today in the nice undercard.
Bragging rights go to OTL for picking the Trifecta Cold and to Tracker for staying with the PICKS Well I am packing my bags to be with the bleacher crowd at Belmont to witness the Triple Crown going to I'll have Another. Magnificently turned out by Doug O'Nell and perfectly ridden by Mario. With no rabbit in the race Bode set very very soft fractions and could not hold on. He may never ever run in front of IHA in his lifetime.
Thanks OTL THe exata several times, The tri a few and the super with the all button. Good day all around---even better if the first 2 order was reversed. Dave
Hello Data Testers, and I hope every one had a great day Saturday playing the Preakness. OTL really did a great job on a very tight competive group of horses. Ill Have Another looks to be the real deal hear. I thought I was watching the Derby over again. The winner, exacta, trifecta all in the top three and right down at the bottom of the page jumping out at you was Zetterholm , one of only two (R) closer type horses with the last race comments in red writeing makeing up the Superfecta jumping out at you. Results: Winner- $8.40 Exacta- $18.60 Trifecta-$70.80 Superfecta-$424.30 Hope every one did ok on the race. It was alot of fun playing it. When Ill Have another made his last minute push to the finish I thought the OTB was going to blow up , every one just went wild. Great job Darien with OTL . AND NOW FOR THE BELMONT---- Have a great day------Tracker
I am really rooting for IHA as I think he is the best. From a betting stand point ( I will not bet the race ) I suspect Union Rags is the right bet. I will buy a #2.00 win ticket on IHA and hope to frame it with a Cortez print. Dave H
My pick for Third Jewel in the Triple Crown goes to IHA without any resrvations. I am verys sad that I won't be witnessing this historic event as I have abusiness commitment I cannot get out of. I witnessed the crashing of Real Quiet, Chrismatic, Smarty Jones, Funnycide live at Belmont Park. IMHO all went down due to bad rides... moving too early, joceky too hyped up.
Would love to know what the group thinks. Be bold make your prediction, no waffling allowed
I am of course disappointed that I'll Have Another is not running for the triple crown. If he were running I was planning to watch the race and root for him. My key horse for the Belmont is Paynter. He doesn't need the lead but can handle it. He's an improving horse with good speed figures, Mike Smith knows Belmont and I think he can control the race. I will be keying Paynter with Union Rags and Unstoppable U in the exotics. Looking for an exciting race.
I am all in on Dullahan. Dale Romans is now established as a top 5 traineer. The job he's done with Shacklefor is outstanding. Winning the Prelness which we know now is about as far as he will go then turning back to sprints and a mile and winning. Castillano is quietly the best jockey riding now. His best is on Turf but he tries every race never see him wrapping up like Kent D or even Johnny V who gets lazy sometimes. I will contend that Dullahan had a real shot at the Triple Crown with a btter rid ein the Derby . Then he would have started in the PReakness and here to day. That makes his case for today even stronger with the 5 week rest and the best jockey USA or New York abroad. I am not a UNion Rags fan. Not that he may be talented but he is failing and failing and the Trainer keeps blaming the jockeys. Today is the day of truth for him to put up or shut up! Paynter may surprise but not with a cent of my money. IS everyone satisfied that Doug O'Neill is not hiding something? His press conference was not convincing to me. Oh he says slight tendonitis and promplty retires IHA from racing. Never ever heard of that before. Sure any suspicison of a problem he should not race and break down but to retire from racing????? Fred did talk about his milk-shake habit. WOuld be good to hear the analysis of another Vet on the pronosis for IHA. Well as I said I smell fish.!! Go Dullahan at 8/5. Look for value in the undercard
Paynter almost pulled it off; Time seemed very slow although last 3 years have been over 2:30. Johnny V gave a great ride up the rail. Had the exacta but missed the Tri and super.
BTW a trainer I know on the NY circuit says the scratch of IHA was legit. A horse can get tendonitis from the stress of racing and traing. Normal recovery time is 3-6 months but with a horse as valuable as IHA it would be risky to bring him back.
In an interview with Bob Costas owner Reddam said he was more interested in racing than breeding and had planned on racing IHA next year and maybe the year after. Whether his statement is credible or not I don't know, In the same interview O'Neil said he was going to fight his 45 day suspension by the CHRB. Good luck to him on that
Who are your top three picks so far?
ReplyDeleteHello every one, just wanted to post alittle on the Derby. I have been some what down and out about the Derby this year because several months my OTB announced that they wood not be carring any Kentucky or Florida tracks. So far that has been true. So every one just took it that the Derby was out for us. (What a Bomber). That really did as you would say SUCKS . Well this past Sunday a security guard told me that the Derby was on her work schedule. That was great news. By now I would been up to my nose in Derby handicapping so I will have a late start. But we will get on with it.
ReplyDeleteI was some what impressed with the run Hansen showed in his last race. He made it look so easy to win.
Union Rages from what I understand has beat him before.
I always watch to see how the Arkansaw Derby goes first before going too far.
Every one have a great day. More to come--------Tracker
Hello from upstate NY. Just a couple of thoughts on the derby. I think Union Rags will find the last quarter a bit too long. Right now I am leaming toward El Padrino in the FL Derby and Alpha in Cal. After watching the Santa Anita Derby I think I will know who my pick is. Dave
ReplyDeleteHey Folks
ReplyDeleteRemember you can view all the past performances, charts and video replays of the prep races for the Derby through OTL.
You can select Derb Trail 2012 from the left side of the Home page or go directly to http://www.ontracklive.com/derby2012.htm.
I find it really useful to look at how the live race is run.
Florida Derby today.
ReplyDeleteCan Union Rags be beaten.
The quesrtion was answered yesterday.
DeleteOTL had the top pick - TAKE CHARGE INDY (led all)
OTL had the Exacta, Trifecta & Superfecta.
OTL Easy selection of the top 4 was perfect.
This is shaping up to be a erally good derby as Union Rags who was the favorite was not impressive yesterday. Perhaps a poor ride... he was reserved early came into the straight on the rails switched outside but was not powerful in the finish.
Take Charge Indy was given a superb ride... reserved in front had lots at the top of the straight to accelerate away from Reveron.
My initial reaction is that Union Rags has alread peaked and there may be others getting better now.
Hello Data Testers, talking about Gulfstream Park, that was great but today at the Fairgrounds OTL really did its thing.
ReplyDelete5 out of 14 top winners and these were not all chaulk.
7th race----Results (6-8-3)
Top pick won $33.60
Exacta----$526.20
Tri.----$1,978.00
The top pick 4 in printed order was (6-8-3-5)
You cant get any better than that. In exact order.
Now for the cream of the crop.
Race 10 The Louisiana Derby-----$1.000.000 Race----1 1/8 Miles
Results----12-1a-11-6
Now the 12 was 99/1 at post time. The top pick was the 11 on the reports , with Mike Smith riding him, a big plus in this kind of race. The 1a was the post time favorite, the fourth pick on the reports. NOw looking down the report you see 3 red boxes, the 3-12-4 all showing that the horse was improving .But only one of them had a 94 under the exerise (Ex). This really should be getting your attention by now. Trust the reports.This horse was an (L) running style which alot of these runners hold on.Which this one did.So takeing the top pick and the second pick and this high rated exercise with the red box by it , #12 would have landed you in handicappers heaven.
Results-----12-1a-11-6
Win----$220.80
Exacta----$491.80
Tri.----$7,812.00
Superfecta----$16,326.20 KABOOM----KABOOM
My OTB does not carry the Florida tracks this year, maybe next year. But they do carry the Louisiana tracks (Fairgrounds)
Hope some of you may have picked up on some of this.------Tracker
Louisiana Derby (LD) - Tracker said it all!
ReplyDeleteCheck you email for a link to a new Tutorial I published. This tutorial uses the sheet for the LD to explain the VHT used to point to the winner and exotics in the race. You can also view the rerun of the LD from our Derby Trail page.
This week-end get ready for a blockbuster set of Derby Preps
The Santa Anita Derby
The Wood Memorial
The Illinois Derby
Good Luck!
4-05-12 Thursday
ReplyDeleteHello every one, I mentioned in another post something about Hanson, and I am keeping him in my sights at this time. That horse won that race like he was takeing a walk in the park. Now there are still more horses to come this week end.
I am also takeing a look at a horse named (Creative Cause). He could turn out to be a player. He lost to Hanson and Union Rags back in November at a 1:44 mile and sixteenth.
On March the 10th at Santa Anita he came back and ran a 1:41.84 at a mile and sixteenth an won (San Felipe G2). Thats a full 2 seconds faster than the race he lost in November and any 1 1/16 mile race that Hanson and Union Rags has run. Of course the Derby is a little longer with a grinding stretch than those races but this horse still had plenty of gas left in his tank. His form in the stretch wss some what rough but he kept it together and won. I will be considering this horse and hopeing he has some very good value at post time.
I have a big question mark by Union Rags after this week end.
There are other races comeing this week end and the Arkansaw Derby I believe the next week end. I always wait and watch the trip the winning horse has in that race.
More to come on the Derby------Just doing a little thinking out loud-----I hope we all do well on Derby day. --------Tracker
Hello Data Testers, The Santa Anita Derby will be Saturday at 5:30 ET. The 6th Race a $750,000 G1 ----9 Fur. race. Creative Cause will be running in that race from the above post. Joel Rosario will be driving and the horse is trained by Mike Harrington. Early signs seem to be he may be the favorite. Not much value there. But we will get another chance to him run again. He will be running out of the #1 post. We will get a chance to see if maybe he will join Union Rags with a question mark by his name. Good Luck this week end .---------Tracker
ReplyDeleteWith the major preps completed this is shaping up to be a really great Derby with many of the top rated horses failing: Union Rags, Creative Cause, Hansen and others like Bodemeister and Dullahan trending upwards,
ReplyDeleteRemember to check out our Derby Trail Page. It is accessible from the main page via clicking on the graphic in the left side. I have updated the results of the last several Derby preps where you can review the replays.
I have also added a list of the top 25 eligible by Graded Stakes Earnings. All of the info on this page is taken from the official Kentucky Derby website. Check it ou!!!
Thanks for the Derby printable sheets. I appreciate that the sheets were out already for the Derby, but I would love to get a chancce to play around with the interactive part of the site before the Derby. I would also love to see something similar for the Oaks, but obviously you are quite busy so I understand if it cannot be done.
ReplyDeleteI did notice that the top three rated horses on the Derby sheets all came out of the Bluegrass Stakes which makes me wonder about the algorhythm (by the way hated to see that horse get hurt) used in generating those numbers. I can only come to one of of two conclusions. First, the Bluegrass Stakes was just a fantastic prep or that because of pace and surface, it is a potentially over rated race falsely putting those three entrants on top. I think it is much more likely that it is the latter rather than the former. While it is entirely possible this could be a similar situation as Empire Maker and Funny Cide running 1-2 in the Wood and then turning around and going 2-1 in the Derby, but in my eyes, the prep does not seem that strong, especially considering it was on poly.
Any thoughts?
I was looking at the same thing concerning the Bluegrass and synthetics. I don't think the 2012 Bluegrass is like the 2003 Wood. I think the major Derby preps were of pretty high quality. Has anyone studied how winners at Keenland have done at Churchill?
DeleteI always give an extra look at horses that have won at Churchill. Also those that have run poorly there. Hansen and Gemologist have run well and won at Churchill. This year's 3YO's seem to be a very good crop. The 1st 5 runners in the BC Juvenile and 4 others are in the Derby. Hansen beat 8 subsequent graded stakes winners in the BC Juvenile.
Hanson may have beat 8 horses that later won Graded Stakes but he does not appear to have progressed that much as a 3 year old. This may be due to distance issues with his breeding. I will toss Hanson which means he will probably be first over the speed and whistle. Just a few thoughts. Dave
DeleteHello Data Testers, and a big Happy Kentucky Derby to every one. I am just an old horse player that loves the sport and being around other people that do also. This year is a little different than most years. I cant play the Derby because my OTB has some issues with Churchill Downs. I know that stinks but I havent lost heart. I have still been following the horses and will share some thoughts on this years race. Which I believe has some of the best talent in recent years.
ReplyDeleteI usually take a postion against the favorites or lets say ones takeing the most action at this toime.
Bodemister----This one is hard to go against his jocky. (Mike Smith) This is his kind of race.
Hanson
Union Rags
Gemologist
Which these seem be be the ones that fit.
Looking for some that may be ready to run the (best) race of there life. A few horses that I like that are not in any order are:
#9 Trinniberg--This is a very fast little horse, with plenty of heart and a sure fighter. Not sure if he can handle the distance, maybe not but I will not leave him out of my exotics.
#8 Creative Cause-- I made another post about this horse, I believe hes a contender and could handle the distance.Big closer.
#13 Went The Day Well----Same connections as Animal Kingdom----Has done his best running going into the second call and foward from there----Has paired triple digit late pace figures several times. I like his odds.
#16 El Padrino----He may not win but could be in the exotics. This horse needs to get to the inside bad. Has a hard rideing jocky doing the driving.
#5 Dullahan----I am not so sure this horse has toped out yet,just may be this race.Hes not one of the fastest but I like his running style. His rider may just surprise every one. He is good about that.
Thats my top five. Now, there is another horse that is going off at nice odds that I feel could be contender (Take Charge Indy) At this point useing him may still be up in the air.
Would decide later on him.
Well I hope every one makes some big money and really enjoys the race. The horses will give you all they have and the jockys will do there best.
As I said earlier I cant play the race this year because of issues beyond my control but I handicapped it as if I were. Its hard to break old habits.
I cant really tell you who will win the Derby and dont believe any one else can either. But I always try to play bets that help put the odds a little more in my favor.
I try to keep it simple, so I would more than likely do an exacta box with the mentioned horses and maybe a few win bets on horses of value. I always look for value. And try to stay away from the hype.
Heres a little story . For many years I would always start handicapping the Derby about two or three months before. My wife does not handicapp or know any thing about horse raceing. But she does usually watch Breakfast At Churchill Downs on the TV on Derby day.
Three years in a row I was leaving to go to the track and I would always ask her if she saw one she liked and she would tell me that one and I would write down the horse she pointed at. Well for three years in a row she picked the horse that ran second to the winner, Smarty Jones was one of them that won, man did I love that horse.. It kind of made me wonder why am I doing all this work, standing there with a raceing form all kind of paper work in my hands. Oh well thats horse raceing. By the way her picking helped me hit every exacta more than once, some nice ones too.
When those horses come around the last turn into the stretch and fan out its any ones race.
Well as I said good luck to every one, have a great day. I may add to this later----Tracker
Had to believe Bodemiester and Gemologist are 8-1 in the current win pool of almost $400k.
ReplyDeleteBiggest drop from M/L is Take Charge Indy from 15 to 8
Hard to ignore Gemologist at 8-1
I have to believe the early money is going towards long-shots given the race's history.
No deep closer won a dirt race at CD today.There was no horse further back than 2.5 lengths after the first half mile except for the 9th race. Does this mean speed will hold for the Derby?
Of course there were no 10 furlong races either.
Remember the morning line is made up of artificial odds by Battaglia. Borel in the last 5 years has established himself as the King of the Derby so once people realize he is up on Take Charge Indy the odds will drop, it makes sense.
DeleteNot sure why Bodemeister is favored. If his odds are rising, again it makes sense as he beat nobody in the Arkansas Derby and was whipped by Creative Cause in Ca. If anything it enhances the stocks for Creative Clause.
Both the grass and dirt were lightening fast on Friday at CD. Several stakes records were broken.
Speed handicappers love Bodemeister hes has 3 of the 6 triple digit Beyers in the field
DeleteAs promised our value-added offical picks are posted on the Derby Trail Page
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ontracklive.com/derby2012.htm. CHeck it out
**This is different from the picks in the sheets. WHy? because the Derby handicapping methdolody is being applied on top of the regular handicapping technique.
However the interactive prt of the You Drive / sheets part of the site still gives a ton of info it is just the final ranking that has changed.
Awesome results yesterday Oaks Day at CD 5/5/12
ReplyDeleteGood sign for Derby Day (look at how track is playing in results sheets)
8 WINS (6 top 3)
4 Exactas
3 Tri's
WO PERFECT **************
7 Wins (other races first time starters / distance)
4 Exactas
1 tri
The winner I'll have Another was superbly turned out by Doug O'Neill. He was the best in the field and perfectly ridden by young jockey Guiterrez, bucking tradition that inexperienced jockeys cannot win the Derby. Doug O'Neill is a good California trainer.
ReplyDeleteBodemeister ran a monster race. Credits to jockey Mike Smith who made a rare and decisive gamble to take him to the lead and outrun Trinniberg. He was still running well up to the finish.
Credit to Baffert who had Bodemeister peaking on Derby Day
Our Derby Pick Dullahan ran a fast closing 3rd coming from far far back. Went the Day Well ran nicely in the last furlong for 4th. Both look promising for the other legs of the Triple Crown. If Bodemeister comes out OK he will be tough to beat in the Preakness. The Belmont is up for grabs though.
Other than not picking the Derby winner, OTL did well in the undercard. 7 Winners (Easy Selections) - 5 Exactas, 1 Trifecta
Hope you all had some luck and made money.
O'Neill has a running battle with the CHRB over milkshaking. He had at least one horse disqualified last year. He's a trainer that if I bet on his horse, I lose, If I bet against him, he beats me.
ReplyDeleteI too was impressed with Guiterrez and his patient ride. 1st winner ever from post 19
Hello every one, I posted my thoughts before I saw the printable sheets of the Derby. As I mentioned Mike Smith and Bodemeister would be hard to go against, and he certainly ran a nice race. But just could not quite hang on for the win, as every one knows.
ReplyDeleteI thought the printable sheets really did a great job as far as presenting a chance to win money on one of the hardest horse races out there if not the hardest.
Results:
Win--$32.60---- #19--Ill Have Another
Exacta--$306.60--#6--Bodemeister
Trifecta----$3,065.60--#5 Dullahan
All three of these horses were in the top 6 selections of the report. Now to narrow that down even more, top choice #5 Dullahan, cant leave him out. #14 Hanson ,second choice , not a factor in the race, but he was noted as a (LS) horse. (Has Won Leading All The Way), lone speed. Black box with a yellow (Y ) in it.
Now the other two horses #6 Bodemeister and #19 Ill Have Another were the only other two (LS) horses in the top 6 on the report. I all ways pay close attention to what the report says in the top part of it.
They were all there close together and one of the most important things I look at is the (LS) horses if any. Especially on the upper part of the card. So the winner, the exacta and the trifecta were really hitable.
Now if we go a little deeper on the card, one of the other very important indicaters on the reports is the little red box under the (T) trending up or down. There are only four horses in the entire race with this indicater. When there are more than one I start looking for something to consider one over the other, and guess what #13 ( Went The Day Well) a horse I like anyway was the only one of these with an equipment change. (Blinkers On ) one of my favorite angles.
Results----19-6-5-13
Superfecta----$96,092.80 KABOOM
I usually dont play just a win bet on these kind of races. Ill usually throw some horses in a box or stack bet and go for the exacta, maybe the trifecta and maybe some sort of Superfecta. I personally feel these bets could have been hit useing the reports in this race.
Just a note: as expected Dullahan was closeing like a Fright Train at the finish line he may be one to really look at in the Preakness.
Hope every one did well , as I mentioned I could not play the race because my OTB has some issues with Churchill Downs.
More to come on the up comeing races.------Tracker
We heard from Tracker and Fred about their Derby experience. What was your? Also sheets for WO, MTH, BHP & BEL will be up by 11:30 Eastern.
ReplyDeleteI think Creative Cause is the best value in the Preakness
ReplyDeleteI will be playing him to win, exactas (box) with Bodemiester and Daddy Nose Best and trifectas with /all/Daddy Nose Best and Zetteholm. I think I'll Have Another will not have another race like the derby
Good morning to every one on Preakness day. I will be going with the Top four on the reports, plus two others for long shots in my play.
ReplyDeleteRace 12
9-7-6-8 I liked these four from the start.
Will look at adding 5 (Went The Day Well) and 4 (Zetterholm) to the mix in a stacked Trifecta. Will wait to post time on configeration.
Good luck every one and have a great day.------Tracker
My personal thoughts not official OTL predictions.
ReplyDeleteUnless Bodemeister is a super horse which he may prove to be, I see him packing it in the straight. That derby sprint move has to be exhausting for a young horse. Our local hero Joe Bravo on Teeth of the Dog - is a bit impetuous and may just duel with Bode for the lead.
I'll have Another staying fit should win.
Creative Cause can win with a perfect one move ride from 3 furs out, because he is a bit one paced. Rosario is a strong tough jock.
Expect Went the day well to improve a lot on the Derby run. He is the one that can improve a ton on the last race and sweep by to win handily.
One more thing.
The results from yesterday at Pimlico had 6 best last race horses and 6 won leading in front WINNERS. This info may be useful today in the nice undercard.
Good Luck
Bragging rights go to OTL for picking the Trifecta Cold and to Tracker for staying with the PICKS
ReplyDeleteWell I am packing my bags to be with the bleacher crowd at Belmont to witness the Triple Crown going to I'll have Another. Magnificently turned out by Doug O'Nell and perfectly ridden by Mario. With no rabbit in the race Bode set very very soft fractions and could not hold on.
He may never ever run in front of IHA in his lifetime.
IHA for the Triple Crown yeah!
Thanks OTL THe exata several times, The tri a few and the super with the all button. Good day all around---even better if the first 2 order was reversed. Dave
DeleteHello Data Testers, and I hope every one had a great day Saturday playing the Preakness. OTL really did a great job on a very tight competive group of horses. Ill Have Another looks to be the real deal hear. I thought I was watching the Derby over again.
ReplyDeleteThe winner, exacta, trifecta all in the top three and right down at the bottom of the page jumping out at you was Zetterholm , one of only two (R) closer type horses with the last race comments in red writeing makeing up the Superfecta jumping out at you.
Results:
Winner- $8.40
Exacta- $18.60
Trifecta-$70.80
Superfecta-$424.30
Hope every one did ok on the race. It was alot of fun playing it. When Ill Have another made his last minute push to the finish I thought the OTB was going to blow up , every one just went wild.
Great job Darien with OTL .
AND NOW FOR THE BELMONT----
Have a great day------Tracker
I am really rooting for IHA as I think he is the best. From a betting stand point ( I will not bet the race ) I suspect Union Rags is the right bet. I will buy a #2.00 win ticket on IHA and hope to frame it with a Cortez print. Dave H
DeleteMy pick for Third Jewel in the Triple Crown goes to IHA without any resrvations. I am verys sad that I won't be witnessing this historic event as I have abusiness commitment I cannot get out of.
ReplyDeleteI witnessed the crashing of Real Quiet, Chrismatic, Smarty Jones, Funnycide live at Belmont Park. IMHO all went down due to bad rides... moving too early, joceky too hyped up.
Would love to know what the group thinks. Be bold make your prediction, no waffling allowed
The Belmont sheets will be posted tomorrow morning (Friday) 6/8
ReplyDeleteI am of course disappointed that I'll Have Another is not running for the triple crown. If he were running I was planning to watch the race and root for him. My key horse for the Belmont is Paynter. He doesn't need the lead but can handle it. He's an improving horse with good speed figures, Mike Smith knows Belmont and I think he can control the race.
ReplyDeleteI will be keying Paynter with Union Rags and Unstoppable U in the exotics.
Looking for an exciting race.
I am all in on Dullahan. Dale Romans is now established as a top 5 traineer. The job he's done with Shacklefor is outstanding. Winning the Prelness which we know now is about as far as he will go then turning back to sprints and a mile and winning.
ReplyDeleteCastillano is quietly the best jockey riding now. His best is on Turf but he tries every race never see him wrapping up like Kent D or even Johnny V who gets lazy sometimes.
I will contend that Dullahan had a real shot at the Triple Crown with a btter rid ein the Derby . Then he would have started in the PReakness and here to day. That makes his case for today even stronger with the 5 week rest and the best jockey USA or New York abroad.
I am not a UNion Rags fan. Not that he may be talented but he is failing and failing and the Trainer keeps blaming the jockeys. Today is the day of truth for him to put up or shut up!
Paynter may surprise but not with a cent of my money.
IS everyone satisfied that Doug O'Neill is not hiding something? His press conference was not convincing to me. Oh he says slight tendonitis and promplty retires IHA from racing. Never ever heard of that before. Sure any suspicison of a problem he should not race and break down but to retire from racing?????
Fred did talk about his milk-shake habit. WOuld be good to hear the analysis of another Vet on the pronosis for IHA. Well as I said I smell fish.!!
Go Dullahan at 8/5. Look for value in the undercard
Paynter almost pulled it off; Time seemed very slow although last 3 years have been over 2:30. Johnny V gave a great ride up the rail. Had the exacta but missed the Tri and super.
ReplyDeleteBTW a trainer I know on the NY circuit says the scratch of IHA was legit. A horse can get tendonitis from the stress of racing and traing. Normal recovery time is 3-6 months but with a horse as valuable as IHA it would be risky to bring him back.
In an interview with Bob Costas owner Reddam said he was more interested in racing than breeding and had planned on racing IHA next year and maybe the year after. Whether his statement is credible or not I don't know, In the same interview O'Neil said he was going to fight his 45 day suspension by the CHRB. Good luck to him on that